Book Festival: Surprisingly Little Conflict Over Afghanistan

After the Wars...

17 August, Spiegeltent

Though billed as a debate, the panellists in After the Wars... found little to disagree about. James Sutherland and Ahmed Rashid are both authors of books on the Taliban, which are both, coincidentally, named ‘Taliban.’

Their views on the current conflict in Afghanistan are equally similar, and from a certain point of view, equally bleak. They argue that the only viable end to the conflict is for NATO forces to negotiate a settlement with the Taliban, and aim to bring them back into the political life of Afghanistan. This goes against the grain of the Western forces’ current strategy of counter-insurgency, which aims to root out the Taliban from their strongholds. In Fergusson’s words, the Taliban have become so “part of the fabric of Afghanistan” that continuing to exclude them will only continue the violence.

It was therefore up to the chair, BBC journalist Alan Little, and the audience to draw the debate out further. One audience member pointed out that the country’s complex ethnic makeup would mean that the majority-Pashtun Taliban would always be at odds with Afghanistan’s other ethnic groups. The panel could only reply that any group offering security would be accepted by the Afghan people, an answer which might require them to pay the price of the Taliban’s strict Sharia law.

Yet as Rashid pointed out, a rapid withdrawal of Western troops from Afghanistan could be disastrous. He lays the blame for the country’s parlous security situation on the lack of reconstruction in Afghanistan as Washington’s gaze shifted to Iraq. Fergusson complemented his argument by saying that the Taliban leaders he’d spoken to in Kabul had moderated their position, and were now willing to explicitly exclude Al Qaeda from the country.

Rashid and Fergusson’s books will make for uncomfortable reading for some Western policymakers. But they may presage a shift in opinion towards cohabitation rather than conflict.